LH – It’s a horse race (“thankfully”), and stuff can go wrong; but it will very much have to for CH to get beaten in the CH. I Like To Move It the “wise guy” horse but his forward-going style may not be suited to the tactical shape of the race. Any of Jason The Militant, Not So Sleepy, or the big pair of Constitution Hill and State Man could take them along.

My big 3-1 NAP loves soft ground and heads to Ascot in great form

In the last twelve years, every winner of this race was either a single figure price (five winners) or 25/1+ (seven). Last year’s 80/1 bomb was only a minor outlier on a recent history that includes a 40/1, three 33/1’s and two 25/1’s – so maybe this is the race to turn the form book upside down. If that’s your thing, let’s mess about with the concept for a minute. Echoes In Rain enjoyed a purple patch last spring where a hat-trick of wins was capped by Grade 1 honours in a Punchestown Festival novice hurdle. At the top table this term, she’s found life tougher, twice getting a distant view of Sharjah’s tail before finishing closer to Honeysuckle albeit in a steadily run contest. This is shallower than those meetings with Champion Hurdle aspirants, actual and absent, and it wouldn’t be a total shock if she were to bounce back.

Constitution Hill

Many new sites that launch will want to do so with a bang, and will offer deals that they might not be in the position to offer when they are more well-established. ZENTA is an interesting runner here for the same stable and JP McManus’ retained rider Mark Walsh takes the ride. She jumped very well in France and was picked up for powerful connections. She only made she Irish debut about 3 weeks ago and ploughed through every hurdle but hit the line strong. The overall performance was impressive considering how much she did wrong, and I expect her to massively improve for it.

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Willie has more than just State Man; he also saddles last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner, Vauban, and he’s an interesting contender. While Constitution Hill and State Man are likely to be on or close to the pace, Vauban has been ridden a lot more patiently and, as a result, has finished his races off well in respectable defeats to State Man. If State Man tries to force things against the favourite – and it’s unlikely the Closutton team will be riding for a place – then Vauban may be the one to hoover up any crumbs. The Goffer won a Grade A handicap chase at Leopardstown last time off a mark of 138. He’s got 149 here, as a result of both that win and the recalibration of Irish marks to British ones; while that seems a hefty enough elevation to overcome, the step back up to an extended three miles could be in his favour.

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Another thing to consider is that new sports betting sites are more likely to offer generous offers to new punters (read our BlackType review or the Karamba sports review for more details). IMPERVIOUS holds strong credentials to land the Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase at 4.50. Recently purchased by top owner J P McManus, she can extend her winning sequence. The daughter of Shantou displayed her immense ability with a smart success at Punchestown in January, giving a pair of well-touted geldings weight and scoring with plenty in hand.

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They are living, breathing animals that we cherish and love. A good horse can win under an inexperienced jockey but not even Sir Anthony McCoy and Frankie Dettori combined will win on a slow one. I love a lot of sports but horseracing has something extra special about it – so special, in fact, that I left Premier League football to present horseracing on ITV. All told, over the course of 406 bets advised during this free trial period, a profit of 138 points @ 22.79% ROI was made. This free service ran from March 2022 to August 2022 and was a resounding success, making a 138 point profit at 22.79% ROI over the course of 406 bets. Applying those negative filters would have left 375 qualifiers.

Relegate makes it nine Champion Bumper wins for Willie Mullins

The long term disciplined approach is essential in true professional betting. I spend long hours analysing races and for me the only way to determine true value is by maintaining my own ratings and compiling my own prices, without recourse to the bookmaker odds. There is a lot of twaddle talked by so called experts about betting value. As a professional for many years, I know exactly what the word means in hard cash terms.

Ayr Gold Cup Preview, Tips, Runners & Trends

• Applying those negative filters would have left 375 qualifiers.
• The average winning rating in that time, bar Lord Windermere, was a touch over 171.
• Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week.
• O’Faolains Boy set a fair but not searing tempo, aided and abetted by Smad Place, in 2016, the beneficiary of which was the handily-ridden Don Cossack.
• The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts.
• He looks to have a good bit to find, though it’s possible that he will locate at least some of the form deficit with Ballyburn for his ultra-shrewd owner, Tony Bloom (pictured above).
• William Haggas’ filly was a smooth winner of a handicap at Sandown last month and should still be competitive off an 8lb higher mark.

Western Climate runs in his first handicap having run well in a Hereford novice that is looking to be quite strong form. Deposit & play £10 on Bingo within 7 days to get £40 Bingo bonus, 50 Free Spins & Club Voucher. Selected games, wagering requirement and expiry dates apply. Up to 200 spins over 4 day period from first deposit & spend of £10. Max 50 spins each day at 10p per spin for 4 consecutive days.

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Likely to be quick, as forward-goers like High Definition and Rare Edition collide with an ocean of adrenaline coursing through the jockeys’ veins for the first rising tape of the week. The 2023 Cheltenham Festival is here, and it’s going to be a belter! 28 races, almost all of them head-scratching puzzles in terms wagering possibilities…

Value, testing ground & the Festival…

If you’ve been reading stuff on here for any length of time, you’ll have noted myself, but especially Dave Renham and Chris Worrall, evangelising about the value of draw and run style. Again, these angles play especially well on the all-weather, because most synthetic tracks in UK and Ireland race on turning tracks, many of them from the minimum trip up. That’s it for the Cheltenham Festival Day 2 winners, and we have been blessed with fantastic action so far.

She was very impressive on Irish debut at Fairyhouse beating Zarak the Brave and backed it up at Leopardstown at Christmas before being narrowly beaten by Gala Marceau at the DRF. Lossiemouth was severely hampered at one stage and looked well beaten before staying on strongly to finish only 2.5 Lengths behind the winner. I’ve spoken historically about “the rule of two”, whereby we get past the notion that a single heavy ground win might have been in a very weak race or by some sort of fluke. Two wins affirms that a horse is definitely suited – or can at least handle – extreme going. Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25! And, of course, as we should never tire of saying, the price makes the play.

LH – Energumene jumps right which is a problem at Cheltenham; cannot have him at all. EdG is a fair price, and he might be Gentleman’s problem if he doesn’t allow that one to dominate from the front. Edwardstone probably just wins, after a good prep when a lot went wrong last time. Inthepocket is interesting up in trip; didn’t the run of the race at the Dublin Racing Festival.

• Run Wild Fred looks the one, especially with the striking booking of Jamie Codd.
• Echoes In Rain enjoyed a purple patch last spring where a hat-trick of wins was capped by Grade 1 honours in a Punchestown Festival novice hurdle.
• He’s knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn’t stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that’s better) at the same age.
• This comprehensive approach fuses expert tips with personal research, offering a well-rounded strategy for successful betting endeavours.
• Cue Card’s form of last season would give him a great chance today.

As an eight-year-old he’s oodles of upside in this sphere and is clearly with the right man. Venetia Williams’ wildly experienced novice, Royale Pagaille, looks to have stamina as his strong suit. I was so taken with his outright demolition of a solid Graded handicap field in the G2 Peter Marsh at Haydock that I backed him for the Gold Cup. “She’s running in the Champion Hurdle”, all my friends tell me. But she’s the reigning champ in this race and the drying ground will make the two mile Champion more of a speed test than this two and a half mile contest.

Paul Kealy’s five-step guide to finding a winner

He is not a guaranteed runner, hence the insurance caveat of NRNB, but this race is looking less and less clear cut by the day. Easysland was expected to bolt up before flopping at the November meeting; he was then expected to race in France as a preparation but skipped that, too, so comes in off that solitary, below par, effort. He could easily bounce back but is not the ‘gimme’ he looked going into the November meeting.

He’s won his last four starts, all Grade 1’s, by 12L, 22L, 12L, and 17L – and had won his previous start by 14L. His speed figures are just about off the scale and he can take a position wherever in the field meaning tactics are not a worry. Given he’s normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill’s profile whatsoever and he’s a very worthy odds-on favourite. The Supreme is sometimes won by a clear cut favourite – think Appreciate It or Douvan – but, more often than not, the waters are muddier and the multiple returned for finding the winner more appealing. This year falls into the latter bracket, and surely bookies all over the country will be desperately trying to ‘get’ Facile Vega.

• The more I look at the Supreme, the more I feel like Mighty Potter should get a lovely lead into the business end and will get the end-to-end gallop that suits him best.
• If they all stand up it’s hard to see the placed horses reversing with the winner, in spite of the argument that the furlong and a bit shorter trip might favour the pace horse.
• The furlong shorter trip compared with the Irish Arkle might be a benefit to Blue Lord, whose credentials look most apparent of the Irish runners even though the eye was naturally drawn to Riviere d’Etel’s unlucky runner up effort there.
• But a top priced 8/11, whilst still very far from offensive in value terms, is unexciting for those of us with limited elevens to risk in the pursuit of eights.
• Five of the last 13 winners had run in the Ultima Handicap the previous year.

In this case, 2nd of four beats two horses and loses to one horse, so has a PRB score of 67% (or 0.67) for beating two out of three of its rivals. Impact Value (IV) is a measure of how frequently something happens for x in relation to how frequently it happens for all. For instance, how often the going is good to soft on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival compared to how often the going is good to soft over all days of the Cheltenham Festival. Protektorat has been Pricewise’d in the last couple of days, that value vacuum cleaner meaning he’s a rum price for us Johnny Come Lately’s, but he’s not really one I’m yet persuaded by anyway. And so, enfin, let us peruse the past performances, in approximate market rank order.

Madara rates a mention as a progressive 5yo with a 3-3 record on testing ground, and he went to Ireland to spank the local handicappers at the DRF. That allowance was 6lb when he won at Cheltenham two starts back and still 3lb at Leopardstown but has now been eroded entirely. It won’t stop him, as such, but he’s effectively 19lb higher than when beating In Excelsis Deo two starts back, and I don’t think it has been factored into his price. There are lots of poorly handicapped horses in this race and it’s not hard to whittle the field down to horses well enough treated who can cope with the conditions and the Cheltenham fences. Most of his best form is on a sounder surface, as when fourth in the Gold Cup two years ago; but he’s raced mainly on softer recently. Indeed, he was second to Delta Work in this race a year ago and was down the field in the two handicap chases over the track/trip late last year.

Ile Atlantique, another Willie entry, was outstayed by yet another from Closutton in Readin Tommy Wrong in the G1 Lawlor’s of Naas over two and a half last time. Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer. It is often said of the Gallagher that it’s more of a speed than a stamina test, with runners tending to settle into a steadier rhythm than, say, the Supreme – a two mile burn up from flag fall. That being the case, Ile Atlantique’s two mile tactical speed could be valuable, though he’s only run once over timber prior to his defeat last time.

Lantry Lady, who falls into the “could be anything” category, boasts a perfect 2-2 record over hurdles with wins on heavy ground. The 2m 4f distance should bring out more improvement in her. Although Rachael Blackmore appears to prefer Telmesomethinggirl, Jack Kennedy is a capable substitute. Both of Henry de Bromhead’s mares present each-way opportunities. It’s at this time of year that we hear plenty of “the best I’ve ever trained” bluster, and Pauling has gone on record as naming this fellow in that category.

Joes Edge defied a 114 day absence in 2007 though such extended layoffs are exceptional when it comes to Ultima winners. High Definition is obviously a very high class ex-flat horse; he was favourite for the Dante as a three-year-old and ran second in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup and third in the Group 1 Coronation Cup last year. The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite. I think he’s very likely to be found out in a race as hot as this, especially with other pace players from the get go. Jpr One has the best domestic form but not by much; he also has a trainer in form and can handle conditions.

• Her jumping was immaculate and she managed to avoid all of the hustle and bustle that was happening after the last to catch Chacun pour soi up the home straight.
• A race most remembered for Badsworth Boy’s hat-trick of victories from 1982, a big win for this author with Azertyuiop in 2004, Master Minded’s double and the thrilling return of Sprinter Sacre two years ago.
• No horse comes without some downsides and, as ever, the challenge is to weigh the negative against the prevailing odds.
• After third placings at Pontefract and Newmarket in April, Eilean Dubh was back in business at Hamilton Park the following month and followed up in a big field at York a fortnight later.
• This coincides with the rise of mobile betting, and underlying trends in sports betting that have seen football and tennis gain more ground.
• Racing against the far rail from a draw in stall one, David Egan got bumped and bored when attempting to get through on the run to the final furlong, just as Raasel swept to the front down the outside.
• It should be remembered that a maiden in late February will be easier to win than one in late November, most of the runners already multiple non-winners by then.

On ratings she has a few pounds to find with some of these but her trainer is making optimistic noises (for whatever that is worth). It will be quick and there will be some trouble in transit for a few. Hopefully Frodon gets them spaced out behind and all have their chance. Saint Sam and Magic Daze are the most likely leaders, but Blue Lord and Riviere d’Etel have led or pressed the pace in at least two of their most recent four starts as well.

Brian Ellison was very confident that he was coming back to form when asked in a recent interview about his 9-year-old for Sky Sports Racing. From the surface underneath, to the topography of the track, to the tightness of the bends, every racecourse in Britain and Ireland is unique. Some will suit prominently ridden horses, others those ridden more patiently.

Tom Queally’s mount still has the potential for better and is worth another go at this marathon trip. Reshoun returned to winning form at Newbury 13 days ago and is feared, along with stablemate Hydroplane and last year’s runner-up Withhold. Fourteen jump Bolts Up Daily fixtures for us in the schedule for the week with a wide geographic spread. We start the week in Scotland with an extended seven race card at Ayr. Following quite a long spell of rain leading up to the meeting the going has now eased to Good to Soft.

Previous experience of this tricky cross country course is always invaluable and there is no shortage of proven performers in this tight field. Perhaps the most progressive is BLESS THE WINGS and he is a tentative choice. Cause of Causes, Cantlow and Josies Orders all have similar sorts of claims. The Last Samuri, a smart horse at Aintree, is interesting. He passed him in the air at the last and then sprinted up the hill as he has done here now three years in succession, in the Supreme, then the Arkle and now the Champion Chase, a deja-deja-vu.

At least, that’s my reading of this vaguest of vaguenesses. Specifically, we’ll try to conjecture a) which horses will run in the 2022 Gold Cup, and b) how they might be expected to assemble themselves through the first mile – and at what sort of an overall speed. All that means is Ireland have won five of the last six renewals of the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and current market sentiment points to a sixth pot in seven years. He does finish second unnervingly frequently – he’s allowed one to pass in five of his last six chases – but otherwise is a strong box-ticker for all that he’s no Prestbury Park previous. Fitting the historical profile more snugly is the Gordon Elliott inmate, Run Wild Fred, who represents Gigginstown and is ridden by Jamie Codd. Codd has piloted the winner in three of the last six renewals where amateur jockeys contested (professionals last year due to Covid), two of the three coming for Elliott.

The 39 in the last decade which didn’t were all unplaced bar one. Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points. None of the 238 horses sent off at 25/1 or bigger managed to win an open Grade 1 at the last ten CheltFests. Moreover, only three priced bigger than 14/1 scored, from 335 to face the starter, with this group losing 274 points at SP. Meanwhile, those priced at 14/1 or shorter won 50 races from 300 starters, and lost just two points at SP. Chacun was imperious at Christmas, value for plenty more than the official six and a half lengths.